BUDAPEST, Feb 25 (Reuters) – Hungary’s centre-right opposition Tisza party has widened its lead over Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz in February, a highly regarded poll showed on Wednesday, ahead of an April 12 election in which the veteran nationalist is seeking reelection.
Orban, seeking to retain his 16-year grip on power, is facing a strong challenger for the first time in a parliamentary vote, with the outcome having major implications not only for Hungary but for Europe and its far-right political forces.
The poll showed Fidesz losing ground, while Tisza is gaining supporters, despite numerous voter-pleasing measures announced by the government after three years of economic stagnation.
Tisza, led by former government insider Peter Magyar, has extended its lead over Fidesz to 20 percentage points among decided voters, up from a 12-point lead in a January survey, pollster Median said in an article published by news website hvg.hu.
Magyar’s party, which was only launched in 2024, had the support of 55% of decided voters, up from 51% in January.
Support for Fidesz dropped to 35% from 39% a month ago, according to the survey conducted between February 18 and 23.
When looking at the entire population, the survey said that Tisza was supported by 42% while Fidesz was backed by 31%.
Median researchers said Tisza “has made up for its loss of momentum in the autumn and is once again leading Fidesz with a confidence similar to that of last summer.”
Apart from the two main parties, only the far-right Our Homeland (Mi Hazank) party has a chance of getting into parliament, with the support of 6% of decided voters, up from 5% in January, Median said. Parties must win at least 5% to get seats.
The Median poll has one of the strongest track records of accurate forecasts in Hungary. It correctly predicted Orban’s landslide victory in the last election four years ago, though slightly overstating opposition support.
While most polls have shown a Tisza lead, Fidesz points to surveys that still show it on course to victory, though its opponents say these have mainly been conducted by institutes with financial or personal ties to the ruling party.
Orban said last week at a campaign stop in Sumeg that surveys show that Fidesz could win in 65-70 of Hungary’s 106 individual constituencies, down from 87 four years ago, but still enough to retain power.
Hungary’s parliament has 199 members, 93 elected from party lists and 106 elected directly from constituencies.
(Reporting by Anita Komuves)
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