By Howard Schneider
WASHINGTON, Feb 20 (Reuters) – President Donald Trump seemingly flagged a disappointing end-of-year reading on U.S. economic growth before it was made public, criticizing the role Democrats played in an extended government shutdown last fall that pulled down the economy’s headline output numbers.
“The Democrat Shutdown cost the U.S.A. at least two points in GDP. That’s why they are doing it, in mini form, again. No Shutdowns! Also, LOWER INTEREST RATES. “Two Late” Powell is the WORST!!! President DJT,” Trump said on social media more than half an hour before the release of new government data that showed the economy grew at just a 1.4% annual rate over the final three months of the year, with the 43-day federal shutdown from October 1, 2025, to November 12, 2025 lowering that by an estimated 1.15 percentage points.
The president receives some economic data in advance, but elected officials have by tradition withheld comment until those reports are made public, often at 8:30 a.m. His call for lower interest rates has become a common refrain, with the Federal Reserve now awaiting a transition to a new chair, Kevin Warsh, named by Trump to take over after current Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May.
The 16.6% drop in federal spending last quarter was the biggest decline since the early 1970s.
Trump’s early post appeared to coincide with a jump in trading volumes in equity index futures but there was little change in market prices or bond yields following his comments.
White House spokesman Kush Desai, responding to questions about Trump’s commenting on data that had not yet been released, focused on the implied shift in the data to stronger private sector growth.
“Today’s GDP report showed that President Trump continues to deliver robust private sector-led economic growth with strong consumption and investment,” he said, arguing that if isolated the private sector numbers “smashed” estimates by others of U.S. growth.
“America’s economic comeback is set to only accelerate in 2026,” he said.
Indeed the impact of government shutdowns is typically seen as temporary, similar to the impact of storms that lower economic growth in one time period only to see it made up in the future. Government workers who missed paychecks, for example, eventually receive back salary and either make up for delayed spending or replenish diminished savings.
The government shutdown last fall was the result of a standoff among Trump, Republicans and Democrats over, among other issues, healthcare funding and the extension of tax credits to help middle- and lower-income families afford private health insurance. Parts of the Department of Homeland Security are currently shut down in a standoff over funding for the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency.
The fourth-quarter GDP growth figure was short of the 3% expected by analysts and put full-year growth for 2025 at 2.2%, less than the 2.8% achieved in 2024, President Joe Biden’s final full year in office, and below the 3% full-year figure Trump administration officials said they anticipated.
Government spending was a drag on the economy for much of 2025, and at the administration’s instigation. The first months of Trump’s new term in office involved deep cuts to some federal agencies and a broad effort to cull federal workers.
According to the latest estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, changes in federal spending lowered economic growth by 0.37 percentage points in the first three months of last year, and by 0.35 percentage points from April through June.
But the drag at the end of the year was more notable, the largest since 1994.
(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Andrea Ricci )
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