By Valentina Za
MILAN, Feb 9 (Reuters) – Italy’s second-largest bank UniCredit said it aimed to lift profit to 11 billion euros ($13 billion) this year, after beating analysts’ forecasts for 2025 with earnings boosted by stakes in peers bought under CEO Andrea Orcel’s expansion strategy.
UniCredit, which had previously guided for a net profit of 10 billion euros in 2027, said on Monday it aimed to get to 13 billion euros in 2028 with “exceptional” average growth of 7% a year in 2026 to 2028.
Shares rose 4.5% in early trade to their highest since late 2009, with JPMorgan analysts pointing to the upbeat profit outlook.
UniCredit has spent billions of euros from its excess cash reserves to become the main shareholder in Germany’s Commerzbank and Greece’s Alpha Bank, stopping short of full takeovers.
Under Orcel, a veteran dealmaker, UniCredit has also invested, sometimes temporarily, in other financial institutions in what Mediobanca Securities analysts have dubbed a “game of stakes”.
Speaking to CNBC television, Orcel said UniCredit’s 29.8% stake in Alpha had led to a “strong partnership” that “stays like that for now”.
While Greece has welcomed UniCredit, Germany has opposed its Commerzbank ambitions and asked it to sell its 26% stake in the country’s No.2 bank.
Asked about full mergers, Orcel told CNBC: “We think that at the right time, if conditions are there, it will happen – in the right way. And if doesn’t we have plenty to do otherwise.”
LOWERING COSTS
UniCredit said proceeds from the stakes it holds would add 1 billion euros to net revenue in 2028 versus 2025. Net revenue dipped last year, hit by a contracting lending margin and hedging costs on the investments.
Citi and JPMorgan analysts said fourth-quarter operating profit was below expectations but mainly due to one-off items. UniCredit set aside 1 billion euros in the period to fund later voluntary staff exits.
This will help it to further lower costs to one third of revenue in 2028 from 36% this year, it said.
The bank has seen its share price increase nine-fold since Orcel took over in 2021 and used record profits fuelled by higher interest rates to reward shareholders through share buybacks and dividends.
UniCredit aims to distribute 30 billion euros back to investors over the next three years.
UniCredit, which has large operations in Germany, Austria and eastern Europe, posted a net profit of 2.17 billion euros for the fourth quarter, benefiting from 336 million euros of tax credits from past losses.
($1 = 0.8450 euros)
(Reporting by Valentina Za; Editing by Jamie Freed, Kirsten Donovan)
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