By Francois Murphy
VIENNA, Jan 16 (Reuters) – Regional fears of a U.S. attack on Iran have eased after President Donald Trump said Tehran had assured him that protesters would not be executed, but he is keeping “all of his options on the table”, the White House said.
The last major strikes on Iran were carried out by Israel and the United States in June, mainly targeting key nuclear facilities.
WHICH NUCLEAR SITES WERE HIT?
All three of Iran’s uranium-enrichment plants – two at Natanz and one buried inside a mountain at Fordow – as well as a sprawling complex at Isfahan, which includes facilities that are part of the nuclear fuel cycle and an underground area where diplomats say much of Iran’s enriched uranium has been stored.
HOW BAD WAS THE DAMAGE DONE?
The U.N. nuclear watchdog, which carried out regular inspections at nuclear facilities including Natanz and Fordow until they were attacked, has not been granted access to those facilities since they were bombed.
It has inspected other facilities that were not damaged but the exact status of the ones that were remains unclear.
In a quarterly report on Iran in November, the International Atomic Energy Agency said seven of its declared nuclear facilities were “affected by the military attacks” and 13 were not. Those reports do not elaborate on the damage done.
Soon after the bombings the IAEA said the smallest of the three enrichment plants, the above-ground Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant at Natanz, was destroyed. It is likely the larger underground plants at Natanz and Fordow were at least badly damaged, the IAEA has said.
How far Iran’s nuclear programme has been set back is subject to debate. Trump has repeatedly said Iran’s nuclear facilities were obliterated, but IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi said in June that Iran could start enriching uranium again on a more limited scale within months.
WHAT HAPPENED TO IRAN’S ENRICHED URANIUM?
That is not entirely clear. Some will have been destroyed in the airstrikes, but Iran has yet to submit a report to the IAEA on what happened to its bombed facilities and stock of enriched uranium despite the agency saying it is urgent and overdue. Only once that happens can the IAEA verify it.
“I believe there is a general understanding that by and large, the material is still there. But, of course, it needs to be verified. Some could have been lost,” Grossi told Reuters in September. Diplomats say little appears to have changed since then.
“We don’t have indications that would lead us to believe that there has been major movement of material,” Grossi added.
Iran was enriching uranium to up to 60% purity, a short step from the roughly 90% of weapons grade, until the strikes.
The IAEA estimates Iran had 440.9 kg of uranium enriched to that level when the bombing started. That is enough in theory, according to an IAEA yardstick, for 10 nuclear weapons, if refined further. It also has uranium enriched to lower levels.
The IAEA does not report where Iran stores that material. One key storage installation underground at Isfahan appears not to have been damaged beyond strikes on the tunnel entrance leading to it, diplomats say.
WHAT CONCERNS REMAIN?
One reason the United States and Israel gave for the bombings was that Iran was getting too close to being able to produce a nuclear weapon. If enriched to weapons grade, uranium can be used to make the core of a nuclear bomb. It can also be used to fuel nuclear power plants at various enrichment levels.
Western powers say there is no credible civil justification for Iran’s enrichment to such a high fissile level, and the IAEA has said it is of serious concern. No other country has done so without eventually producing nuclear weapons.
At the same time, before the attacks the IAEA said it had no credible indication of a coordinated nuclear weapons programme in Iran, and there was much debate about how long it would take Iran to develop a nuclear bomb if it chose to.
Tehran denies ever seeking nuclear weapons. As a party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, it has the right to enrich for nuclear power or research, as long as it does not weaponise the process.
Iran has an unknown number of centrifuges – machines that can enrich uranium – stored at unknown locations. With its enriched uranium stock now unaccounted for, there is a risk that Iran could secretly put the two together and quickly produce weapons-grade uranium, in violation of its NPT obligations.
For now, it appears likely a cat-and-mouse hunt for Iran’s enriched uranium stock will continue for some time.
(Editing by Mark Heinrich)
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