By Olena Harmash
KYIV, Dec 10 (Reuters) – President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was prepared to hold elections – a key demand of Moscow and now Washington – if the United States and Kyiv’s European allies could ensure the security of the vote.
Zelenskiy gave a potential time frame of two to three months. Here are some of the obstacles that would need to be overcome:
WHAT ARE THE SECURITY CONSIDERATIONS?
Ukraine, which last held elections in 2019, has been under martial law since February 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion. Elections are forbidden under martial law.
Russia has said Zelenskiy is illegitimate because his term ran out in May 2024 and so cannot sign peace deals on Ukraine’s behalf. Trump criticised the lack of elections in an interview with Politico published on Tuesday.
Fighting is raging along more than 1,200 kilometres in Ukraine’s east, south, and north. Hundreds of Russian drones and missiles regularly pound Ukrainian cities and towns far from the frontline. Electricity supplies are disrupted due to Russian attacks on the power sector and other energy infrastructure.
The majority of Ukrainians oppose the idea of elections during the war, said Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, citing recent opinion poll results.
Volodymyr Fesenko, a political analyst, said an air ceasefire at the very least was a vital first step to start considering a vote. He said Ukraine would need to create the legislative framework for the elections from scratch, including a new law to spell out timing, rules, and procedures. Fesenko estimated that about six months would be required to do that.
Kyiv will also need to pre-empt any possible manipulation attempts by Russia, analysts said.
WHERE ARE UKRAINIAN VOTERS?
Millions of Ukrainians would face challenges in voting, analysts and officials said.
Data show that more than 4.3 million Ukrainians had temporary protection status in the European Union as of late 2025. To enable their vote, Kyiv needs to organise hundreds of polling stations across Europe, analysts said.
More than four million Ukrainians are registered as internally displaced. Registering all displaced people would be a difficult undertaking requiring time and funds, analysts said.
About one million people serve in Ukraine’s defence forces. Arranging a free and fair vote on the frontline would be hard and may require legislative changes.
Ukrainian officials estimated that as of 2024, 4.5 million adult Ukrainians remained in Russian-occupied territories. Russia controls about 19% of the Ukrainian territory.
The State Register of Voters needs to update its records of voters and polling stations.
WHAT ARE ZELENSKIY’S CHANCES?
Zelenskiy would have a strong chance at reelection, according to polls conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology) and other regular polls. Zelenskiy’s popularity in Ukraine was at about 90 percent early in the war, but it has since dropped to the mid-50s range, polls show.
Political analysts and pollsters said Zelenskiy’s approval ratings were damaged by a major corruption scandal in the energy sector, but that Zelenskiy remained a front-runner out of all traditional politicians.
Polls show that Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s ambassador to Britain and formerly the commander in chief of the army, is the only candidate who would pose a serious threat to Zelenskiy. Zaluzhnyi has so far declared no political ambitions, saying that while the war was going on, the focus should be on defending the country.
(Reporting by Olena Harmash; editing by Philippa Fletcher)
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