By Nelson Bocanegra
BOGOTA (Reuters) – The board of Colombia’s central bank is forecast to cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points for a second consecutive month at its April meeting, to support the country’s economic recovery without losing control of inflation, a Reuters poll revealed on Wednesday.
If the forecast shared by all 22 of the analysts is met, the bank’s board will vote to lower the cost of money to 11.75% at its meeting on April 30.
The vote will not be unanimous. Colombia’s Finance Minister Ricardo Bonilla – who represents the government on the seven-member board – has expressed his intention to push for a more aggressive cut, probably of 100 basis points, as he did at the meeting in March.
“The conditions are in place for the process of gradual decreases to the interest rate to continue, annual inflation continued to decline in March, economic activity is weak, inflation expectations maintain reasonable levels,” bank Bancolombia said in a note.
If the forecast is met, total cuts to the benchmark interest rate since December – when the bank began its downward cycle – would amount to 150 basis points.
This month, board member Olga Lucia Acosta told Reuters that while she is confident that cuts in interest rates can be accelerated, factors like inflation and U.S. monetary policy must be considered.
Colombia’s 12-month inflation through March hit 7.36%, more than double the central bank’s long-term 3% target.
In the poll, analysts maintained their forecast that the bank’s benchmark interest rate will end this year at 8.25%, but updated their estimate for the end of 2025, projecting it to close next year at 5.50%, down from 6%.
(Reporting by Nelson Bocanegra; Writing by Oliver Griffin; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
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