A look at the day ahead in markets from Saikat Chatterjee.
With U.S. Federal Reserve officials signalling a 75-basis point interest rate increase at their July 26-27 meeting, rather than the 100 bps some were pencilling in, markets are in a relatively cheerful mood — European as well as U.S. stock markets are set to open firmer.
So market attention has shifted to two major events in Europe.
First, will Russia resume the flow of gas through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline on July 21? Without a meaningful return of flows, gas prices will surge, potentially forcing Germany and other countries to enact fuel rationing which will almost certainly tip the economy into a recession.
That question mark over gas supplies looms large ahead of the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday, which should deliver its first interest rate hike in more than a decade.
But the 25 bps move expected of the ECB is tiny compared to the magnitude of recent rate hikes by its peers elsewhere; Canada raised rates by 100 bps and even Switzerland may be mulling a 50 bps rate hike in September.
Of more interest will be the ECB’s future interest rate hike path and details of its “anti-fragmentation” tool.
The latter will be of particular interest, given it aims to contain the borrowing costs of southern European countries such as Italy, which has plunged into fresh political turmoil
Investors remain circumspect about the outlook for global markets with the dollar index perched near a two-decade high. U.S. Treasury yields are a touch softer as several large Chinese cities grapple with new outbreaks of COVID-19 infections.
One bright spot is that company earnings are holding up relatively well. Of the 35 S&P 500 firms which have second-quarter earnings, 80% have beaten expectations, according to Refinitiv. Citibank’s earnings indicators do not point to a “meaningful” global earnings contraction, the bank said.
Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Monday:
China steps up loan-support efforts to developers
HSBC will speed up exit from non-core markets and deploy additional capital in Asia
New Zealand’s inflation hits 3-decade high
UK property asking prices rise 9.3% on year
Finland’s Nordea posts profit above expectations
Debt auctions: France, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium
Graphic: euro and dutch, https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/egpbkxjaavq/euro%20and%20dutch.JPG
(Reporting by Saikat Chatterjee; Editing by Sujata Rao)
