By Ankur Banerjee and Jiaxing Li
SINGAPORE, Feb 10 (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar was weaker on Tuesday before the release of a slate of economic data that is expected to shape the path ahead for interest rates, while the yen firmed for the second day in the wake of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s election victory.
The Japanese yen strengthened to 155.24 per U.S. dollar after rising 0.8% on Monday. Verbal warnings from authorities helped strengthen the yen after the currency weakened in the immediate aftermath of the victory.
The rising expectation that the landslide win could allow Takaichi’s government to be more fiscally responsible because it eliminates the need for negotiations with opposition parties has also helped the yen and soothed investor jitters.
The spotlight has now shifted to what Japan does with its massive foreign currency reserves, a $1.4 trillion war chest for future yen interventions. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has said using a surplus from the reserves could be considered when discussing funding sources for planned cuts to the sales tax on food.
“This idea has many complications, but indicates the focus on maintaining fiscal discipline,” said Russell Matthews, a portfolio manager at RBC BlueBay Asset Management.
However, analysts expect the yen to weaken in the long run, noting Takaichi’s fiscal policies may weigh on the frail currency. The yen is down 6% since she took charge of the Liberal Democratic Party in October.
“With fiscal policy set to loosen further under a bolder Takaichi administration, I think dollar-yen will ultimately resume strengthening,” said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “We continue to forecast dollar-yen to increase to 164 by year-end.”
The yen was broadly firmer against other currencies, inching away from the record lows versus the Swiss franc and the euro that it has been hovering around.
The euro stood at $1.19125 after a 0.85% jump on Monday. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six other currencies, was at 96.79, hovering near a one-week low.
The Chinese yuan strengthened past 6.91 per dollar for the first time since May 2023, bringing the gains to more than 1% for the year, with analysts expecting the currency to rise throughout the year.
Seasonal corporate conversion demand and the central bank’s stronger fixing guidance have both buoyed sentiment, while media reports that China urged local banks to diversify away from U.S. Treasuries also added to the momentum.
Sterling last fetched $1.369 after a volatile Monday as investors weighed the crisis facing British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and rising wagers of further rate cuts. It last fetched $1.3689 after rising 0.6% in the previous session.
DATA-HEAVY WEEK
Investor attention this week will be on the monthly reports covering U.S. employment and consumer prices that were pushed back slightly due to a recent three-day government shutdown.
White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said on Monday that U.S. job gains could be lower in the coming months due to slower labour force growth and higher productivity. Investors are trying to assess whether weakening in the labour market has tapered off.
“Markets will be squarely focused on a number of key U.S. data releases, including payrolls tomorrow and CPI later,” said CBA’s Kong, adding that the bank expects pressure on the dollar to persist as it is forecasting below-consensus payrolls.
January’s nonfarm payrolls report, out on Wednesday, is expected to show an increase of 70,000 jobs, according to a Reuters poll.
Traders are still pricing in two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with the first one expected in June, although markets remain on tenterhooks ahead of a potential shift in U.S. policy following the nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair.
In other currencies, the Australian dollar eased 0.2% to $0.7079, just shy of a three-year top after riding a global stocks rally, while the New Zealand dollar was at $0.60395, down 0.3%.
(Reporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore and Jiaxing Li in Hong Kong; Editing by Sonali Paul and Thomas Derpinghaus)
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