By Michael S. Derby
NEW YORK (Reuters) -Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday he’s on board with another interest rate cut at the U.S. central bank’s policy meeting later this month because of the mixed readings on the state of the job market.
“Based on all of the data we have on the labor market, I believe that the (Fed’s policy committee) should reduce the policy rate another 25 basis points at our meeting that concludes October 29,” Waller said in the text of a speech to be delivered before a gathering of the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.
What comes after that meeting, Waller said, depends on future data. He said as he weighs whether more rate cuts are needed, “I will be looking for how the solid GDP data reconcile with the softening labor market.”
Waller reiterated his view that trade tariffs are having a modest impact on inflation and that price pressures remain on track to hit the Fed’s 2% target. That outlook allows the central bank to focus policy deliberations on the job market.
“The broad message of all the labor market data is one of weakening in demand, relative to supply, even with substantially lower net immigration and a decline in labor force participation this year,” and as the Fed navigates this month’s meeting without major data due to the U.S. government shutdown, private data are sending mixed signals about the state of hiring, he said. Waller noted that data showing a low-hire, low-fire labor market is “ominous.”
Waller explained that any signs of a pick-up in the job market amid strong growth could slow the need for rate cuts.
But, “if the labor market continues to soften or even weaken and inflation remains in check, then I believe the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) should proceed to reduce the policy rate toward a neutral level, which I judge is about 100 to 125 basis points lower than it is today,” implying a policy rate in the 2.75%-3.00% range.
“The labor market has been sending some clear warnings lately, and we should be ready to act if those warnings are validated by what we learn in the coming weeks and months,” Waller said.
US CENTRAL BANK EXPECTED TO CUT RATES THIS MONTH
Fed policymakers will meet on October 28-29 amid a dearth of data due to the government shutdown. After the central bank lowered its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 4.00%-4.25% range last month, officials are broadly expected to deliver the same-sized rate cut this month.
The rate cuts are aimed at steadying a tottering job market at a time when inflationary pressures still remain high and will likely accelerate for a time as President Donald Trump’s massive and ever-shifting trade tariffs work their way through the economy.
In comments on Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested that even as the central bank lacks the data that normally drive its monetary policy deliberations, a looming rate cut is possible. He said, “based on the data that we do have, it is fair to say that the outlook for employment and inflation does not appear to have changed much since our September meeting four weeks ago,” adding that “rising downside risks to employment have shifted our assessment of the balance of risks.”
Waller, who is in the running to succeed Powell when his term as Fed chief ends next May, has been among the first wave of officials supporting rate cuts, driven by a worry that the job market is running out of gas and tariffs will cause a one-time shift in price levels that the Fed can look through.
Some Fed officials have been less sanguine about the inflation outlook and more reluctant to cut rates, while others concur that tariffs will present a transient risk to price pressures. Officials at the Fed’s September meeting penciled in around half of a percentage point worth of rate cuts for the remainder of this year.
(Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Paul Simao)
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