By Bart Meijer and Toby Sterling
AMSTERDAM (Reuters) – With the Dutch election over, attention will now turn toward forming a new government. Coalition building in the fractured Dutch political landscape always takes months, and this time will likely be no exception.
Here are several leading scenarios of the type of government that could emerge, given recent polling and depending on parties’ relative performance in the actual vote.
HARD-RIGHT COALITION
With Geert Wilders’ anti-immigration Freedom Party seen as the clear winner, he will likely try to form a government with former Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s conservative VVD Party and the centrist upstart “New Social Contract.”
All three campaigned on the need to limit immigration and have said they might be willing to seek exemptions from European Union agreements on accepting asylum-seekers and on environmental policies.
Negotiations would be difficult as both the VVD’s new leader Dilan Yesilgoz and NSC leader Pieter Omtzigt have said that Wilders’ extreme stances — including seeking a total ban on mosques and korans in the Netherlands — would make it impossible to form a government with him. Wilder has also in the past said he wanted to quit the European Union and close Dutch borders.
Labour leader Frans Timmermans has excluded working with Wilders.
But in the recent campaign, Wilders has shown a more pragmatic side, saying he understands he will need to make major sacrifices in order to enter government. Foreign policy might be less friendly to the EU, less pro-Ukraine, and more pro-Israel.
Based on the exit polls, this combination would have 79 seats in the 150-seat parliament.
BROAD MAJORITY COALITION
Yesilgoz has other options if talks to form a hard-right coalition fail. She could seek to form a centre-right government with NSC and the Labour/Green Left combination led by former EU climate chief Timmermans.
With 69 seats this combination would not have a majority and would probably look to one of the smaller liberal parties.
But negotiations would be tough as Yesilgoz and Timmermans have campaigned heavily on the differences between their two parties. Omtzigt has indicated he could work with both.
Both sides would face major sacrifices and compromises.
A main point of contention would be the Labour/Green aims to significantly hike wealth and profit taxes, in return for lower income taxes, an idea which the pro-business VVD has heavily opposed.
An agreement on restricting immigration could also be complicated. All three parties aim to limit labour migration, but the leftist parties are seeking a much softer tone on asylum seekers than the VVD. Leftist parties would be more willing to limit low-skilled labour immigration.
A broad coalition would be more willing to invest in the energy transition than a right-wing government would be.
CENTRIST MINORITY
The Netherlands is traditionally governed by majority government coalitions. But given that no single party has more than 25% of the vote, a minority government is also an option that has worked in the country’s past.
VVD and NSC could agree on a core government plan, for which they would seek majorities with outside support from the left and from the right on different issues.
For migration issues it could look for a conservative alliance with PVV and other parties on the right, while for climate policies it could seek support on the left.
Omtzigt has said he would favour this setup as it would prevent parties from rigidly sticking to prearranged plans. However, the VVD has said this type of government is inherently unstable and not a preferred option.
PROCESS:
Talks will begin with the appointment of a so-called explorer on Friday, a political outsider who will hear from each party what possibilities they see and prefer.
Negotiations on the coalition that is deemed most likely will then begin, and should be expected to go on well into 2024.
The formation of the last government, Rutte’s fourth consecutive since becoming prime minister in 2010, was the longest in history with a total of nine months.
(Reporting by Bart Meijer)
