BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – A reduced chance of a “very strong” version of the El Niño weather phenomenon later this year should offer some relief to agricultural producers in Argentina, the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) said on Wednesday.
El Nino, prompted by the warming of the surface of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, causes heavier-than-normal rains in Argentina, affecting one of the world’s largest grain exporters.
In the 2022/23 season, which is coming to an end, the key agricultural areas have seen production fall by nearly 50% compared with the previous year due to a historic drought caused by the La Niña phenomenon, the inverse of El Niño.
“A month ago, (El Niño) showed signs of being among the two or three most intense in the last 60 years, but that now looks to be more moderate and the risk of excess water will decrease,” the BCR said in a report.
A very strong El Niño, or super Niño, is likely to be classified instead as a strong El Niño, likely arriving between November and December, said meteorologist Alfredo Elorriaga.
The presence of El Niño is, in principle, good news for Argentina’s agricultural sector, which has just suffered the worst-ever recorded drought.
However, greater rainfall would make it more difficult to sow soy and corn in later months.
According to BCR estimates, the rains in the agricultural core of Argentina, made up of parts of the provinces of Buenos Aires, Santa Fe and Córdoba, would total between 100 and 150 millimeters in November, compared with the usual levels of between 75 and 100 millimeters.
For December, the rainfall in the area would total in a range between 150 and 220 millimeters, from the usual 100 and 125 millimeters, according to rainfall maps from the Stock Exchange.
(Reporting by Maximilian Heath; Edited by Nicolas Misculin and Leslie Adler)
