By William James
LONDON (Reuters) -Britain’s opposition Labour Party said a measure of living standards could fall behind that of Poland by 2030 and eventually Hungary and Romania, citing an analysis of economic output per head based on trend growth since 2010.
The analysis, published late on Sunday, will form the basis of an appeal on Monday by Labour leader Keir Starmer for voters to back his party at an election expected in 2024 instead of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives, in power since 2010.
“We need to be frank about the path of decline the Tories (Conservatives) have set our country on. The British people are falling behind while our European neighbours get richer,” Starmer will say according to advance extracts of the speech.
Labour has promised to ensure Britain has the fastest growing economy among the G7 on a sustained basis if it wins power.
Britain’s economy narrowly avoided recession in late 2022 but faces a difficult 2023 as the effects of double-digit inflation hit households.
Labour cited the latest available World Bank data showing gross domestic product per capita, in Britain at $44,979 in 2021 and $34,915 in Poland when adjusted for the difference in average prices in each country.
The party said that, based on average 0.5% annual growth between 2010 and 2021 in Britain, that figure would fall behind Poland’s per capita GDP by 2030 if Poland kept up its 3.6% average annual growth.
The comparison was based on purchasing power parity, a measure that takes into account what money can buy in different countries and usually shows narrower differences than in unadjusted comparisons.
Poland, a former communist state, has experienced rapid growth since joining the European Union in 2004, in part thanks to the injection of hundreds of billions of euros worth of development funding from the bloc. Like Britain, it is experiencing high inflation and an expected slowdown.
Labour did not respond to a request for details on who had conducted the analysis. Information provided to reporters ahead of the speech did not set out further details.
Using the same analysis, the party said that by 2040, Britain on its current trajectory would fall $12,000 per person behind Romania and $8,000 per person behind Hungary, providing they also remained on the same trajectory.
(Reporting by William James, editing by Elizabeth Piper and Christina Fincher)
