By Alistair Smout
LONDON (Reuters) – British Prime Minister Liz Truss is clinging on to her job after a political crisis and market turmoil sparked by her fiscal plans that has seen her fire her finance minister and reverse major parts of her flagship tax-cutting agenda.
Despite an unconvincing news conference that did little to ease her own lawmakers’ concerns about her leadership, the route to removing her as prime minister, should it come to that, is not straightforward.
Here’s what could happen:
TRUSS RESIGNS VOLUNTARILY
Truss could decide she has lost the support of too many members of her party and the cabinet and resign. She has so far shown no signs of being willing to do this.
SENIOR MINISTERS SEEK TO FORCE HER OUT
Members of her top team of ministers – her Cabinet – could start resigning in order to force her hand. Currently they are standing by her and none have resigned, with the exception of finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng, who she asked to step down and who expressed his continued support for her.
CONFIDENCE VOTE AMONG CONSERVATIVE LAWMAKERS
A vote of confidence among Conservative lawmakers is one mechanism to remove their party leader. However, as Truss only became leader last month, current rules say such a vote cannot be held until September 2023.
The 1922 Committee of Conservative lawmakers, which sets the rules for selecting and changing a leader, could remove that restriction if there were sufficient pressure from within the party.
Under the existing rules, 15% of the Conservative Party’s 356 lawmakers would need to write a letter to the Chairman of the 1922 committee requesting a confidence vote.
Bob Blackman, secretary of that committee, told The Telegraph newspaper that colleagues should stop sniping from the sidelines and take on the opposition Labour Party, reiterating that rebels would have to wait a year.
CONFIDENCE VOTE AMONG ALL LAWMAKERS IN PARLIAMENT
A vote of no confidence in the government could be put forward by opposition parties. If enough rebel Conservatives sided with the opposition and the government lost, the prime minister would be expected to either resign or request a dissolution of parliament, triggering an election.
However, even when Conservatives have previously sought to oust their leaders, they have voted against the opposition Labour Party in such confidence votes to avoid an election.
TRUSS CALLS A GENERAL ELECTION
Truss could call a general election herself, although with her Conservative party dramatically behind Labour in the polls, she doesn’t have to unless she loses a confidence vote in the Commons.
HOW WOULD SHE BE REPLACED?
– If Truss resigns or loses a vote of confidence among Conservative lawmakers in her leadership, there is a process to select a new leader, overseen by the 1922 Committee.
– In previous leadership elections in 2019 and this year, lawmakers put themselves forward, needing a certain number of candidates to make the ballot, and then being whittled down by successive lawmaker ballots to a final two.
That final two would then usually be put to a vote of the party membership.
– However, as that process was a slow one which resulted in instability and a leader in Truss who got less backing among lawmakers than her rival Rishi Sunak, some want any replacement to be selected by a different method.
– Some have suggested supporting a unity candidate by making the nominations hurdle so high that only one candidate could be on the ballot. However, others have warned that replacing Truss in this way would be undemocratic.
– In 2016, the contest was theoretically structured similarly to in 2019 and 2022, but Theresa May’s rival for leader, Andrea Leadsom, was convinced to drop out before the members voted, making May prime minister without a membership ballot and speeding up the process.
(Reporting by Alistair Smout, Editing by Kylie MacLellan and Andrew Heavens)
