SYDNEY (Reuters) – Australian job advertisements slipped for the first time in three months in July in a sign their strong run may finally have peaked, though they remain at historically high levels that point to a further drop in unemployment.
Monday’s figures from Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd showed total job ads fell 1.1% in July from June, when they rose 0.4%. Ads were still up 15.6% on a year earlier at 237,047.
“We may have passed the peak in job ads, but the large volume of unfilled demand means the labour market will likely continue to tighten,” said ANZ senior economist Catherine Birch.
“In fact, we now forecast unemployment to fall below 3% by early-2023.”
The jobless rate stunned in July by falling sharply to a 48-year low of 3.5% as 88,400 net new jobs were created.
That tightness in the labour market is one reason analysts are confident the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will this week hike rates by at least 50 basis points to 1.85%, the fourth move since May. [AU/INT]
Vacancies hit a record high of 480,100 in the three months to May, meaning there were almost as many jobs open as there were unemployed.
“Newly arrived skilled migrants, temporary visa holders, students and backpackers are adding to the supply of workers, but also to already strong demand,” Birch added.
“So, while the return of migration improves labour mobility and matching, it doesn’t mean the gap is going to close quickly.”
(Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)
