By Maximilian Heath
BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – Argentina’s farmers could be hit by a third straight La Nina weather phenomenon, the Rosario grains exchange said, which would mark a potential blow for the grains producing nation’s upcoming 2022/23 season.
The climate pattern, which has already disrupted two consecutive seasons, generally brings lower rainfall in key farming regions, which can hurt production in the world’s top exporter of processed soy and No. 2 exporter of corn.
“There is a reasonable chance that the force of La Nina will continue into the southern hemisphere’s winter,” the report released late on Thursday said, adding it had been 20 years since the last time Argentina faced three straight La Ninas.
“From that moment on, there is a very even probability (40-50%) of a transition to La Nina, which would be the third consecutive one.”
The weather pattern caused significant soybean and corn losses in the 2020/21 and 2021/22 seasons. It will likely be present during the upcoming winter period and could hit wheat crops, which undergo yield development stages during that period.
Farmers will start planting 2022/23 wheat in late May, after harvesting a record 22.1 million tonnes in the 2021/22 cycle.
“The problem with these scenarios is that month by month a water shortage that becomes structural worsens,” the exchange said. “The deep soil levels are severely dehydrated.”
A drought that affected important farming zones between December-February caused the exchange earlier this year to slash its estimates for 2021/22 soybean and corn production by 5 million tonnes and 8 million tonnes respectively.
(Reporting by Maximilian Heath; Writing by Steven Grattan; Editing by Tim Ahmann)
