By Jason Lange
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Democrat Joe Biden appeared to take a narrow lead over President Donald Trump in Florida in the final days of the 2020 U.S. election campaign, with the two candidates locked in a dead heat in North Carolina and Arizona, according to Reuters/Ipsos opinion polls released on Monday.
A week earlier, Reuters/Ipsos polls showed Trump and Biden in a statistical tie across the three states.
Reuters/Ipsos polled likely voters in six states – Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – that will play critical roles in deciding whether Trump wins a second term in office or if Biden ousts him.
Below is a state-by-state look at Reuters/Ipsos findings, based on the online responses of likely voters:
FLORIDA (Oct. 27 – Nov. 1)
* Voting for Biden: 50%
* Voting for Trump: 46%
* A prior poll showed Biden leading Trump 49%-47%, effectively a tie because the margin was within the poll’s credibility interval.
* 41% said they already had voted.
* 47% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 44% said Trump would be better.
* 53% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 42% said Biden would be better.
ARIZONA (Oct. 27 – Nov. 1):
* Voting for Biden: 49%
* Voting for Trump: 47%
* The two are statistically tied as the margin is within the survey’s credibility interval.
* A prior poll also showed a statistically even race, with 48% for Biden and 46% for Trump.
* 49% said they already had voted.
* 49% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 41% said Trump would be better.
* 52% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 42% said Biden would be better.
NORTH CAROLINA (Oct. 27 – Nov. 1):
* Voting for Biden: 49%
* Voting for Trump: 48%
* Since the margin is within the poll’s credibility interval, the race is statistically tied, as it was in the prior poll when Biden had 49% to Trump’s 48%.
* 43% said they already had voted.
* 49% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 43% said Trump would be better.
* 51% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 43% said Biden would be better.
MICHIGAN (Oct. 27 – Nov. 1):
* Voting for Biden: 52%
* Voting for Trump: 42%
* Biden was up 52%-43% the prior week.
* 37% of adults said they already had voted.
* 52% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 40% said Trump would be better.
* 48% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 44% said Biden would be better.
WISCONSIN (Oct. 27 – Nov. 1):
* Voting for Biden: 53%
* Voting for Trump: 43%
* Biden was up 53%-44% the prior week.
* 41% of adults said they already had voted.
* 52% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 38% said Trump would be better.
* 47% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 45% said Biden would be better.
PENNSYLVANIA (Oct. 27 – Nov. 1):
* Voting for Biden: 51%
* Voting for Trump: 44%
* Biden was up 50%-45% the prior week.
* 25% of adults said they already had voted.
* 51% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 40% said Trump would be better.
* 48% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 46% said Biden would be better.
NOTES
The Reuters/Ipsos opinion polls are conducted online in all six states in English, as well as in Spanish in Arizona and Florida.
* In Florida, from Oct. 27 to Nov. 1, it gathered responses from 1,011 adults, including 670 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.
* In Arizona, from Oct. 27 to Nov. 1, it gathered responses from 989 adults, including 610 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 5 percentage points.
* In North Carolina, from Oct. 27 to Nov. 1, it gathered responses from 1,009 adults, including 707 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.
* In Michigan, from Oct. 27 to Nov. 1, it gathered responses from 1,007 adults, including 654 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.
* In Wisconsin, from Oct. 27 to Nov. 1, it gathered responses from 1,007 adults, including 696 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.
* In Pennsylvania, from Oct. 27 to Nov. 1, it gathered responses from 1,006 adults, including 673 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.
(Reporting by Jason Lange and Chris Kahn; Editing by Howard Goller)
